Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Retail Trade Earnings Growth
Across Indiana Counties
Real* Retail Trade
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Retail Trade
Earnings Growth
Indiana:
2010-2022 = 3.80%
2022 = 5.89%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real retail trade earnings growth across all of Indiana's 92 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Indiana Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real retail trade earnings growth of Indiana's 92 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Retail Trade
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Retail Trade
Earnings Growth
Indiana:
2010-2022 = 3.80%
2022 = 5.89%
This figure displays the 92 counties of Indiana as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real retail trade earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real retail trade earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 3.80%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 3.80% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (3.80%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 33 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 56 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 28 counties whose most recent (2022) real retail trade earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (5.89%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 61 counties whose real retail trade earnings growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 92 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 3.80% over 2010-2022 and 5.89% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (3.80%) and near-term (5.89%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (3.80%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Indiana average (5.89%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (3.80%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (5.89%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (3.80%) and near-term (5.89%).
   
 
Summary of Indiana's 92 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(5.89%)
Above
(5.89%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(3.80%)
11
22
33
Below
(3.80%)
50
6
56
 
61
28
89
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Indiana:
2010-2022 = 3.80%
2022 = 5.89%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Indiana counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Indiana's average annual real retail trade earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 3.80%) as well as near-term (2022 = 5.89%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Indiana's 92 counties, 22 (24%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Indiana:
2010-2022 = 3.80%
2022 = 5.89%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 11 Indiana counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 3.80%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 5.89%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Only 11 (12%) of Indiana's 92 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Indiana:
2010-2022 = 3.80%
2022 = 5.89%
This figure shows the distribution of the 6 Indiana counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 3.80%), while they outpaced Indiana's average near-term (2022 = 5.89%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Indiana's 92 counties, only 7% (6) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Indiana:
2010-2022 = 3.80%
2022 = 5.89%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 50 Indiana counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real retail trade earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 3.80%) as well as near-term (2022 = 5.89%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
54% of Indiana's counties, 50 of 92, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Indiana
Real* Retail Trade Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
30
3.94
 
21
6.84
76,592
 
13
5.51
 
11
8.25
1,186,588
 
11
5.94
 
27
5.98
230,337
 
3
9.34
 
1
21.24
217,326
 
33
3.87
 
10
8.26
15,249
 
28
4.07
 
16
7.37
94,191
 
10
5.96
 
8
8.66
134,289
 
32
3.88
 
18
7.23
275,967
 
17
4.95
 
23
6.37
122,915
 
2
9.75
 
3
14.94
805,110
 
26
4.31
 
20
7.02
111,154
 
1
10.07
 
2
15.18
153,648
 
20
4.78
 
24
6.16
178,276
 
8
6.23
 
4
10.99
93,024
 
15
5.25
 
13
7.71
78,041
 
9
6.03
 
15
7.45
23,814
 
31
3.93
 
5
9.06
54,474
 
18
4.87
 
6
8.96
29,301
 
23
4.72
 
9
8.52
24,979
 
16
5.24
 
17
7.36
64,725
 
4
8.57
 
12
7.76
53,695
 
12
5.80
 
7
8.72
65,170
Slipping Counties
 
22
4.75
 
72
2.76
345,796
 
29
3.96
 
51
4.28
69,514
 
21
4.77
 
49
4.32
477,909
 
25
4.43
 
41
4.73
24,490
 
27
4.21
 
34
5.49
36,052
 
6
6.51
 
30
5.77
1,011,245
 
19
4.82
 
40
4.82
419,237
 
5
7.38
 
77
2.32
22,118
 
14
5.43
 
68
2.99
43,661
 
7
6.26
 
31
5.67
8,775
 
24
4.48
 
57
3.80
77,807
Gaining Counties
 
73
2.20
 
26
5.99
20,858
 
35
3.71
 
14
7.45
40,251
 
40
3.61
 
25
6.03
67,128
 
69
2.32
 
19
7.04
63,188
 
50
3.25
 
28
5.94
1,194,454
 
79
1.50
 
22
6.49
11,589
Lagging Counties
 
71
2.21
 
88
-1.42
7,700
 
88
-1.34
 
64
3.37
9,983
 
65
2.54
 
66
3.16
57,793
 
41
3.52
 
89
-1.54
38,539
 
47
3.36
 
78
2.23
47,711
 
64
2.60
 
44
4.62
138,407
 
86
0.97
 
74
2.63
30,334
 
78
1.63
 
54
3.92
122,430
 
81
1.42
 
37
5.36
25,201
 
80
1.44
 
70
2.96
116,848
 
62
2.73
 
53
4.01
40,368
 
55
2.99
 
43
4.62
56,457
 
76
1.87
 
85
1.40
68,260
 
61
2.74
 
71
2.82
186,794
 
42
3.50
 
42
4.65
54,679
 
60
2.80
 
84
1.78
22,835
 
56
2.96
 
38
5.36
31,359
 
53
3.12
 
83
2.00
75,694
 
74
2.02
 
67
3.14
213,097
 
48
3.35
 
69
2.97
77,066
 
66
2.43
 
59
3.70
191,022
 
68
2.39
 
45
4.54
2,543,374
 
45
3.39
 
80
2.21
79,053
 
49
3.26
 
58
3.79
37,913
 
67
2.42
 
35
5.48
267,989
 
85
1.07
 
62
3.46
59,851
 
72
2.21
 
73
2.69
85,814
 
87
-0.30
 
75
2.52
8,516
 
89
-4.51
 
87
-0.44
1,594
 
70
2.31
 
79
2.22
23,708
 
34
3.76
 
81
2.14
20,281
 
46
3.37
 
76
2.35
25,773
 
82
1.38
 
86
0.69
7,590
 
38
3.67
 
39
5.28
339,365
 
43
3.47
 
33
5.65
48,183
 
44
3.46
 
55
3.87
22,114
 
36
3.70
 
56
3.83
665,268
 
58
2.87
 
60
3.63
39,248
 
77
1.73
 
36
5.40
69,802
 
54
3.03
 
32
5.66
18,232
 
84
1.13
 
29
5.87
23,296
 
52
3.18
 
63
3.41
77,606
 
75
1.91
 
82
2.13
21,110
 
51
3.21
 
47
4.52
387,147
 
59
2.83
 
46
4.53
557,882
 
37
3.68
 
61
3.62
24,187
 
63
2.67
 
50
4.32
271,177
 
57
2.91
 
52
4.13
151,416
 
39
3.62
 
65
3.24
46,258
 
83
1.22
 
48
4.51
47,411
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3.80
 
5.89
15,620,726
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3.97
 
3.04
861,699,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1600N_610700_LSGL
 
   
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