Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy.

The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of the Elkhart-Goshen MSA with comparisons to Indiana and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing the Elkhart-Goshen MSA vs. Indiana's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.

Figure 1 tracks the Elkhart-Goshen MSA's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, the Elkhart-Goshen MSA's population rose from 124,600 in 1969 to 206,890 in 2022, for a net gain of 82,290, or 66.04%.

NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities.

Figure 2 traces Indiana's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Indiana's population rose from 5,143,000 in 1969 to 6,833,037 in 2022, for a net gain of 1,690,037, or 32.86%.

NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities.

Figure 3 portrays the Elkhart-Goshen MSA's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Indiana, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size.

The Elkhart-Goshen MSA's overall population growth was 66.04% over 1969-2022 outpaced Indiana's increase of 32.86%, and outpaced the United States' increase of 65.57%.

Another interesting and insightful way of comparing the population growth of the Elkhart-Goshen MSA is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Indiana's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Indiana's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly.

In 1969, the Elkhart-Goshen MSA's population comprised 2.42% of Indiana's population, while in 2022 it comprised 3.03% thereby yielding a +0.61% share-shift.

Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of the Elkhart-Goshen MSA's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average.

On average, the Elkhart-Goshen MSA's population grew at an annual rate of 0.96% over 1970-2022. The Elkhart-Goshen MSA recorded its highest growth in 1984 (3.15%) and posted its lowest growth in 1975 (-0.77%). In 2022, the Elkhart-Goshen MSA's population declined by -0.08%

Over the past five decades some msas have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again shows the annual percent change in the Elkhart-Goshen MSA's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022.

During the 1970s, the Elkhart-Goshen MSA's annual population growth rate averaged 0.93%. It averaged 1.32% during the 1980s, 1.49% in the 1990s, 0.90% in the 2000s, 0.47% throughout the 2010s, -0.02% thus far this decade (2020-2022).

Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for the Elkhart-Goshen MSA noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Indiana and the nation. As the chart reveals, the Elkhart-Goshen MSA's average annual population growth registered above Indiana's average throughout the 1970s (0.93% vs. 0.63%), registered above Indiana's average during the 1980s (1.32% vs. 0.09%), outperformed Indiana's average in the 1990s (1.49% vs. 0.91%), outperformed Indiana's average throughout the 2000s (0.90% vs. 0.67%), outgained Indiana's average during the 2010s (0.47% vs. 0.46%), and amounted to less than Indiana's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-0.02% vs. 0.35%).

Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, the Elkhart-Goshen MSA fell under the nation throughout the 1970s (0.93% vs. 1.10%), led the nation throughout the 1980s (1.32% vs. 0.95%), topped the nation in the 1990s (1.49% vs. 1.23%), posted below the nation throughout the 2000s (0.90% vs. 0.95%), posted below the nation in the 2010s (0.47% vs. 0.74%), and recorded underneath the nation over 2020-2022 (-0.02% vs. 0.31%).